Sports Betting Basics

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Sports Betting Basics

Reading and Understanding Point Spreads

What Is the Point Spread?

In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.

Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched - meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).

If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and offshore sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team "winning" by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).

Let's look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team - so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England . But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.

How to Read the Point Spread

New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must "give" or "lay" points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)

In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:

  • Philly wins the actual game by any amount of points
    OR

  • Philly loses the game by less than 7 points.

There was also the possibility that the final score could land exactly on the spread number (for example, the Pats winning 28-21 when -7), which is called a "push" or "no action" and a refund is then issued to bettors of both teams.

The same game with the same point spread can be considered from the weaker team's perspective: The Underdog (Philly in the case of our example) is not expected to win the game and thus receives or "gets" points given by the stronger team. When a game is stated from the underdog's perspective the team is listed with a plus sign and the number of points they are underdogs by:

Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs. New England Patriots

Keep in mind that Philadelphia +7 and New England -7 is the same point spread on the same game, simply stated differently. The first is from the underdog's perspective; the later is from the favorite's.

For Those Who Like to Consider Things Mathematically

Not a must, but for some a mathematical approach is insightful. You can determine the ATS winner by either:

  • Subtracting the point spread from the favorite's score (thus the minus sign before the number) and then compare to the underdog's score
    OR

  • Adding the point spread to the underdog's score (thus the plus sign before the number) and then compare to the favorite's score

Who Really "Won" the Super Bowl?

Let's look at the actual result of Super Bowl XXXIX: New England 24 Philadelphia 21

The favorite, New England , won the game but not by more than the point spread they were favored by (7), so the ATS result was a LOSS for Pats bettors.

Looking at it from the underdog's perspective, Philly did not win the game, but they lost by less than the point spread (7), so the ATS result was a WIN for Eagle bettors.

Mathematically considered, 24 for the favorite Pats minus 7 equals 17, which is less than the 20 the Eagles scored, so the underdog Eagles win the ATS result (or you could figure 20 plus 7 equals 27 for the Eagles, which is more than 24 for the Pats).

Emily's boyfriend understood the point spread and wagered $100 on the Eagles at +7. The Eagles may not have gotten a Super Bowl ring, but since they won the ATS result Emily's boyfriend cashed his bet - giving him money to take her out to a nice dinner.

And now hopefully you understand how to read point spreads, putting you one step closer to joining the fun of sports betting.

 

Reading and Understanding Money Lines

What Is the Money Line?

Like the point spread, the money line is used to equal out the attractiveness of the favorite and the underdog for the typical bettor.

Money line results are decided by an event's straight-up winner, without regard to any point spread, since there is no point spread. Oddsmakers set the money line so that more money must be risked on the favorite (the expected winner) and less money on the underdog in an effort to balance the willingness of bettors to back the respective sides of a contest.

For example, Emily's favorite tennis player Serena Williams wins a majority of her matches. The money line between Serena and her opponent, let's say the 102nd-ranked player in the world, would not be even for this very reason. Sportsbooks would make bettors wager significantly more money on Serena than her opponent because of the disproportionate likelihood of Serena winning the match.

How to Read the Money Line

In the case of Serena Williams versus an overmatched opponent, a reasonable money line would require Serena bettors to risk $400 to win $100; while a $100 bet on her opponent would win $360.

Here's how the money line would be listed: Serena Williams -400 / #102 Ranked Opponent +360

Every $400 bet on Serena nets a $100 profit if she wins (plus the return of the $400 risked). If her opponent pulls off the upset, $100 bet on the underdog would profit $360 (plus the return of the $100 risked).

Keep in mind that sportsbooks only make a commission (also known as juice or vigorish) when the favorite loses. So if Serena were to lose that match, the book pays off $360 to underdog bettors while collecting $400 from favorite bettors, for a $40 profit.

If Serena wins as expected, favorite bettors collect $100 while dog bettors lose $100 - resulting in zero profit for the bookmaker. The bigger the favorite, the less likely the underdog will win (and the less likely the book will collect their commission). To compensate for making a profit less often, the offshore sportsbook increases the spread between the favorite's lay price and the underdog's payoff, making their commission bigger when the longshot underdog does win.

When the Bulls were rolling with Michael Jordan it wouldn't be unusual for a NBA 1st round playoff series to be priced: Bulls -1400 / Overmatched Opponent +900. In such cases the books would collect their commission only the rare times that the underdog won; but when they did that commission would be quite large.

When Is the Money Line Used?

Besides sports like NASCAR and golf, where the margin of victory doesn't really matter, the money line is also the standard way to bet MLB. If a point spread were used with baseball, the smallest amount a line could be moved would be a ½ run, which would be much more significant than a ½-point move in basketball or football. Using a point spread in baseball would not allow an evening of the action with the necessary precision, so a money line is used.

Money lines are offered on football and basketball too, both college and pro. The money line is another option in those sports for bettors who choose to focus upon picking winners without regard for the point spread. If Emily would have known about money lines sooner, she might have placed a money line bet on her favorite NFL team - the New England Patriots - to win Super Bowl XXXIX.

The Patriots were 7 ½-point favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles, but -265 to win the game on the money line. Emily could have wagered $265 to win $100 on the Patriots. The Pats won 24-21, failing to cover the spread, but winning on the money line. Now Emily knows there's choices other than point spread betting, and she'll be ready for next season. Hopefully, so will you.

How the Betting Line is Made

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world's premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.

Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

"You either have a passion for it or you don't," Seba said.

"The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it's much more complicated, but it's not."

What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers' prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all - their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as 'dividing the action').

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig - typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker's value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game's power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team's local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker's ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public's expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why the Line Changes

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

  • Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

  • Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor's decision.

Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

"The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides," Seba said. "We're not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we're trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we've done that, we've done our job."

 

Overview of Bet Types

What Can Be Bet On?

Game Outcomes
The most popular sports to bet on are NFL and college football along with NBA and NCAA basketball. There are multiple betting opportunities within those sports, beginning with the basic wager on a game's outcome (also called betting the side). Point spreads are used in both football and basketball in an attempt to even the attractiveness of each team in a match-up.

But you could also simply bet on the money line, or straight-up winner of the game.

Oddsmakers use the money line so that more money must be risked on the favorite or expected winner and less money on the underdog to balance the action on both sides. While money line gambling is an attractive option for football and basketball bettors who only care about picking a winner, it is the primary option for those bettors who enjoy wagering on MLB baseball and individual sports like boxing, tennis, golf and racing events such as NASCAR.

Points (or Runs) Scored
Another bet across all major team sports including football, basketball, baseball, and hockey involves wagering on the amount of scoring in a game, called an Over/Under total. For example, the Over/Under total on Super Bowl XXXIX was 48, which means a bettor could wager whether there would be more or less than 48 points scored by both teams combined in the game.

The final score of Super Bowl XXXIX was 24-21; the scoring of both teams added up to 45, which means the game went Under. So Under bettors won, and Over bettors lost.

Future Bets
Sports gambling doesn't end there. Betting sides and totals are the most common wagers available everywhere, but many sportsbooks also offer future bets on big upcoming events like who will win next year's Super Bowl and what movie will win Best Picture at the Academy Awards.

The main advantage of futures is that you can get appealing odds by betting far in advance. For example, with NFL futures you often can get much higher odds on a team by betting before the season even starts. A NFL future bet on a team to win the Super Bowl might be 20/1 in the preseason; but by midseason, their odds might decrease to 10/1 if they turn out to be legitimate championship contenders.

Proposition Bets (or Prop Bets)
Proposition bets, also known as prop bets, focus upon the more exotic aspects of a game and are generally reserved for events that are widely televised. Prop bets are extremely popular when it comes to wagering on the Super Bowl in Las Vegas . The Imperial Palace Casino's sportsbook is well-known for the enormous number of prop bets offered. For example, you can bet on:

  • What team will win the coin toss

  • What player will score the game's first touchdown

  • What will be the exact margin of victory

Types of Bets

Straight Bet
Involves one individual wager, whether it be on your team to cover the point spread, to win the game straight-up on the money line, or to go over/under the total.

Parlay
A parlay is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers and is dependent on all of those wagers winning together. The benefit of the parlay bet is much better odds than placing each individual bet separately since the difficulty of hitting it is much higher.

Standard payoffs on a two-team parlay are 13/5; while a three-teamer pays 6/1; and a four-teamer 10/1.

Parlay cards are also fairly common in sportsbooks and popular with bettors, as they are released early in the week with set odds that do not change in return for a slightly lower payoff.

Round Robin
Adventurous bettors who enjoy betting parlays sometimes put together a series of parlays called a Round Robin. A three-team Round Robin consists of one three-team parlay and three two-team parlays. For example, Joe likes teams A,B,C - with a Round Robin he has a three-teamer with ABC, and two-teamers with AB, AC, and BC.

Teaser
Similar to a parlay, a teaser bet is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers, but is different in that the point spread is adjusted to your advantage on each individual wager. In exchange for the points, you get less of a return on your bet compared to a parlay. For example, a 6-point teaser would move the line on a 7-point favorite from -7 to -1, meaning the team would have to cover 6 less points. Each of the individual wagers must win or the bet is a loss.

These are the main types of sports bets available today. But as sports betting continues to grow, sportsbooks will continue to develop new and creative ways to bet. We'll continue to track these changes to the sports gambling landscape, so check back often and we'll tell you all about it!