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Sports Betting Basics
Reading and
Understanding Point Spreads
What Is the Point Spread?
In any football or
basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two
teams playing against each other.
Those teams, though, are
rarely exactly evenly matched - meaning that typically one team has a
better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to
bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously
bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the
process).
If winning were that easy
the Las Vegas and offshore sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This
is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point
spread is to balance the likelihood of each team "winning" by adjusting
the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you
get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).
Let's look at Super Bowl
XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people
believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team - so if
betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven
majority of people would have wagered on New England . But, by using the
point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the
proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart
bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.
How to Read the Point
Spread
New England Patriots -7 vs.
Philadelphia Eagles
The better team, called the
Favorite, is expected to win the game and must "give" or "lay"
points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and
the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)
In the case of our example,
New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7
points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor
wins his bet either if:
There was also the
possibility that the final score could land exactly on the spread number
(for example, the Pats winning 28-21 when -7), which is called a "push"
or "no action" and a refund is then issued to bettors of both teams.
The same game with the same
point spread can be considered from the weaker team's perspective: The
Underdog (Philly in the case of our example) is not expected to
win the game and thus receives or "gets" points given by the stronger
team. When a game is stated from the underdog's perspective the team is
listed with a plus sign and the number of points they are underdogs by:
Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs.
New England Patriots
Keep in mind that
Philadelphia +7 and New England -7 is the same point spread on the same
game, simply stated differently. The first is from the underdog's
perspective; the later is from the favorite's.
For Those Who Like to
Consider Things Mathematically
Not a must, but for some a
mathematical approach is insightful. You can determine the ATS winner by
either:
-
Subtracting the
point spread from the favorite's score (thus the minus sign
before the number) and then compare to the underdog's score
OR
-
Adding the point
spread to the underdog's score (thus the plus sign before the
number) and then compare to the favorite's score
Who Really "Won" the Super
Bowl?
Let's look at the actual
result of Super Bowl XXXIX: New England 24 Philadelphia 21
The favorite, New England ,
won the game but not by more than the point spread they were favored by
(7), so the ATS result was a LOSS for Pats bettors.
Looking at it from the
underdog's perspective, Philly did not win the game, but they lost by
less than the point spread (7), so the ATS result was a WIN for Eagle
bettors.
Mathematically considered,
24 for the favorite Pats minus 7 equals 17, which is less than the 20
the Eagles scored, so the underdog Eagles win the ATS result (or you
could figure 20 plus 7 equals 27 for the Eagles, which is more than 24
for the Pats).
Emily's boyfriend
understood the point spread and wagered $100 on the Eagles at +7. The
Eagles may not have gotten a Super Bowl ring, but since they won the ATS
result Emily's boyfriend cashed his bet - giving him money to take her
out to a nice dinner.
And now hopefully you
understand how to read point spreads, putting you one step closer to
joining the fun of sports betting.
Reading and Understanding
Money Lines
What Is the Money Line?
Like the point spread, the
money line is used to equal out the attractiveness of the favorite and
the underdog for the typical bettor.
Money line results are
decided by an event's straight-up winner, without regard to any point
spread, since there is no point spread. Oddsmakers set the money line so
that more money must be risked on the favorite
(the expected winner) and less money on the
underdog in an effort to balance the willingness of bettors to back the
respective sides of a contest.
For example, Emily's favorite tennis player Serena Williams wins a
majority of her matches. The money line between Serena and her opponent,
let's say the 102nd-ranked player in the world, would not be even for
this very reason. Sportsbooks would make bettors wager significantly
more money on Serena than her opponent because of the disproportionate
likelihood of Serena winning the match.
How to Read the Money Line
In the case of Serena
Williams versus an overmatched opponent, a reasonable money line would
require Serena bettors to risk $400 to win $100; while a $100 bet on her
opponent would win $360.
Here's how the money line would be listed: Serena Williams -400 / #102
Ranked Opponent +360
Every $400 bet on Serena nets a $100 profit if she wins (plus the return
of the $400 risked). If her opponent pulls off the upset, $100 bet on
the underdog would profit $360 (plus the return of the $100 risked).
Keep in mind that sportsbooks only make a commission (also known as
juice or vigorish) when the favorite loses. So if Serena were to lose
that match, the book pays off $360 to underdog bettors while collecting
$400 from favorite bettors, for a $40 profit.
If Serena wins as expected, favorite bettors collect $100 while dog
bettors lose $100 - resulting in zero profit for the bookmaker. The
bigger the favorite, the less likely the underdog will win (and the less
likely the book will collect their commission). To compensate for making
a profit less often, the offshore sportsbook increases the spread
between the favorite's lay price and the underdog's payoff, making their
commission bigger when the longshot underdog does win.
When the Bulls were rolling with Michael Jordan it wouldn't be unusual
for a NBA 1st round playoff series to be priced: Bulls -1400 /
Overmatched Opponent +900. In such cases the books would collect their
commission only the rare times that the underdog won; but when they did
that commission would be quite large.
When Is the Money Line
Used?
Besides sports like NASCAR
and golf, where the margin of victory doesn't really matter, the money
line is also the standard way to bet MLB. If a point spread were used
with baseball, the smallest amount a line could be moved would be a ½
run, which would be much more significant than a ½-point move in
basketball or football. Using a point spread in baseball would not allow
an evening of the action with the necessary precision, so a money line
is used.
Money lines are offered on football and basketball too, both college and
pro. The money line is another option in those sports for bettors who
choose to focus upon picking winners without regard for the point
spread. If Emily would have known about money lines sooner, she might
have placed a money line bet on her favorite NFL team - the New England
Patriots - to win Super Bowl XXXIX.
The Patriots were 7 ½-point favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles,
but -265 to win the game on the money line. Emily could have wagered
$265 to win $100 on the Patriots. The Pats won 24-21, failing to cover
the spread, but winning on the money line. Now Emily knows there's
choices other than point spread betting, and she'll be ready for next
season. Hopefully, so will you.
How the Betting Line is Made
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world's premier oddsmaking
company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba
is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six
years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5
oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro &
college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these
oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the
process.
Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who
love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked
them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very
research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk
there is little margin for error.
"You either have a passion for it or you don't," Seba
said.
"The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good
two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying
them to current situations. People think it's much more complicated, but
it's not."
What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads
represent the oddsmakers' prediction of how many points the favorite
will win by. That is not the case at all - their intent is NOT to evenly
split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract
equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to
create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while
the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as
'dividing the action').
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a
profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called
juice or vig - typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the
oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an
entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba
explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each
game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes
having up-to-date power ratings on each team.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker's value of each team and
are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an
upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team
plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to
a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game's power rating based pointspread is
determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after
considering each team's most recent games played and previous games
played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading
each team's local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches &
players are thinking going into the game.
Since the oddsmaker's ultimate goal is equally dividing
the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken
into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest
week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. If an
oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment
up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public's expected USC
bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each
oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line
"feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how
games are bet enters into the picture.
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers
involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a
consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is
released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most
respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before
he decides on the final line.
Why the Line Changes
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the
individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments
before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:
-
Experts working for the individual books
having a strong opinion on the game
-
Individual books having players who
consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme
bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line
adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at
any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that
is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence
how the public bets on a particular game.
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most
of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks
will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the
favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance
betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a
bettor's decision.
Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related
factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes
out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is
much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that
could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are
necessary and send out an "adjusted line."
"The main objective is that our clients get equal action
on both sides," Seba said. "We're not trying to pick the team that
covers the spread, we're trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision
(for the bettor). If we've done that, we've done our job."
Overview of Bet Types
What Can Be Bet On?
Game Outcomes
The most popular sports to bet on are NFL and college football along
with NBA and NCAA basketball. There are multiple betting opportunities
within those sports, beginning with the basic wager on a game's outcome
(also called betting the side). Point spreads are used in both football
and basketball in an attempt to even the attractiveness of each team in
a match-up.
But you could also simply bet on the money line, or straight-up winner
of the game.
Oddsmakers use the money line so that more
money must be risked on the favorite or expected winner and
less money on the underdog to balance the action on both
sides. While money line gambling is an attractive option for football
and basketball bettors who only care about picking a winner, it is the
primary option for those bettors who enjoy wagering on MLB baseball and
individual sports like boxing, tennis, golf and racing events such as
NASCAR.
Points (or Runs) Scored
Another bet across all major team sports including football, basketball,
baseball, and hockey involves wagering on the amount of scoring in a
game, called an Over/Under total. For example, the Over/Under total on
Super Bowl XXXIX was 48, which means a bettor could wager whether there
would be more or less than 48 points scored by both teams combined in
the game.
The final score of Super Bowl XXXIX was 24-21; the scoring of both teams
added up to 45, which means the game went Under. So Under bettors won,
and Over bettors lost.
Future Bets
Sports gambling doesn't end there. Betting sides and totals are the most
common wagers available everywhere, but many sportsbooks also offer
future bets on big upcoming events like who will win next year's Super
Bowl and what movie will win Best Picture at the Academy Awards.
The main advantage of futures is that you can get appealing odds by
betting far in advance. For example, with NFL futures you often can get
much higher odds on a team by betting before the season even starts. A
NFL future bet on a team to win the Super Bowl might be 20/1 in the
preseason; but by midseason, their odds might decrease to 10/1 if they
turn out to be legitimate championship contenders.
Proposition Bets (or Prop Bets)
Proposition bets, also known as prop bets, focus upon the more exotic
aspects of a game and are generally reserved for events that are widely
televised. Prop bets are extremely popular when it comes to wagering on
the Super Bowl in Las Vegas . The Imperial Palace Casino's sportsbook is
well-known for the enormous number of prop bets offered. For example,
you can bet on:
-
What team will win the coin toss
-
What player will score the game's first
touchdown
-
What will be the exact margin of victory
Types of Bets
Straight Bet
Involves one individual wager, whether it be on your team to cover the
point spread, to win the game straight-up on the money line, or to go
over/under the total.
Parlay
A parlay is a single bet that links together two or more individual
wagers and is dependent on all of those wagers winning together. The
benefit of the parlay bet is much better odds than placing each
individual bet separately since the difficulty of hitting it is much
higher.
Standard payoffs on a two-team parlay are 13/5; while a three-teamer
pays 6/1; and a four-teamer 10/1.
Parlay cards are also fairly common in sportsbooks and popular with
bettors, as they are released early in the week with set odds that do
not change in return for a slightly lower payoff.
Round Robin
Adventurous bettors who enjoy betting parlays sometimes put together a
series of parlays called a Round Robin. A three-team Round Robin
consists of one three-team parlay and three two-team parlays. For
example, Joe likes teams A,B,C - with a Round Robin he has a three-teamer
with ABC, and two-teamers with AB, AC, and BC.
Teaser
Similar to a parlay, a teaser bet is a single bet that links together
two or more individual wagers, but is different in that the point spread
is adjusted to your advantage on each individual wager. In exchange for
the points, you get less of a return on your bet compared to a parlay.
For example, a 6-point teaser would move the line on a 7-point favorite
from -7 to -1, meaning the team would have to cover 6 less points. Each
of the individual wagers must win or the bet is a loss.
These are the main types of sports bets available today. But as sports
betting continues to grow, sportsbooks will continue to develop new and
creative ways to bet. We'll continue to track these changes to the
sports gambling landscape, so check back often and we'll tell you all
about it!
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